XP stock: fair value
XPThe fair value of XP under our model is $21.59, the price is 30% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.39 and expensive above $43.17 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $17.23 (excess return model) and $25.94 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 15.8%. At 16.8% the fair value would be $20.66, at 14.8% it would be $22.76.
Where the number comes from
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.3).
Excess return model for banks and insurers: book value plus the value of returns above the cost of equity of 15.8% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 1.66 times a risk premium of 5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the excess return model arrives at $17.23 per share: book value plus the value of what the company earns above its cost of equity over time. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $8.48 |
| Stable earnings per share (analyst estimates) | $2.07 |
| Return on equity in the model (stable earnings divided by book value) | 24.4% |
| Cost of equity | 15.8% |
| Excess return per share: (return − cost) × book value | $0.73 |
| Terminal value of excess returns: excess return / (15.8% − 7.5%) | $8.75 |
| Value per share (book value plus terminal value) | $17.23 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.82 |
| × 14.3 (industry P/E) | $25.94 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $21.59 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 13 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.