VRG stock: fair value
VRG.WAThe fair value of VRG under our model is $2.83, the price is 52% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.18 and expensive above $4.04 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $3.38 (cash-flow model) and $2.28 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $2.60, at 10.7% it would be $3.16.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 11.7% (government bond yield 5.6% plus beta 1.15 times a risk premium of 5.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $3.38 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $52.98M | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.8953 | $47.43M |
| 2027 | $54.17M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.8016 | $43.42M |
| 2028 | $55.92M | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.7177 | $40.14M |
| 2029 | $58.12M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.6426 | $37.35M |
| 2030 | $60.69M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.5754 | $34.92M |
| 2031 | $63.58M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.5152 | $32.75M |
| 2032 | $66.76M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4612 | $30.79M |
| 2033 | $70.21M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.4130 | $28.99M |
| 2034 | $73.92M | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.3697 | $27.33M |
| 2035 | $77.89M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.3310 | $25.79M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $348.92M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 5.6%) / (11.7% − 5.6%) | $1.34B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3310) | $444.1M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $793.02M |
| Shares (diluted) | 234.46M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $3.38 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.12 |
| × 19.6 (industry P/E) | $2.28 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Sep 2023)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.