Vgp stock: fair value
VGP.BRThe fair value of Vgp under our model is $83.06, the price is 12% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $59.33 and expensive above $138.43 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $44.64 (cash-flow model) and $121.48 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.7%. At 13.7% the fair value would be $80.82, at 11.7% it would be $85.80.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.7%. Discounted at 12.7% (government bond yield 2.7% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $44.64 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $75.46M | extrapolated at 33.8% | 0.8875 | $66.97M |
| 2027 | $93.92M | extrapolated at 24.5% | 0.7876 | $73.97M |
| 2028 | $110.75M | extrapolated at 17.9% | 0.6990 | $77.41M |
| 2029 | $125.53M | extrapolated at 13.4% | 0.6203 | $77.87M |
| 2030 | $138.26M | extrapolated at 10.1% | 0.5505 | $76.12M |
| 2031 | $149.18M | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.4886 | $72.88M |
| 2032 | $158.62M | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.4336 | $68.77M |
| 2033 | $166.9M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.3848 | $64.22M |
| 2034 | $174.34M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.3415 | $59.54M |
| 2035 | $181.17M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.3031 | $54.91M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $692.66M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.7%) / (12.7% − 2.7%) | $1.86B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3031) | $562.54M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.26B |
| Shares (diluted) | 28.12M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $44.64 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $9.05 |
| × 13.4 (industry P/E) | $121.48 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $83.06 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.