Vibra Energia stock: fair value
VBBR3.SAThe fair value of Vibra Energia under our model is $14.62, the price is 64% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.44 and expensive above $24.37 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $6.73 (cash-flow model) and $22.52 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 16.9%. At 17.9% the fair value would be $14.29, at 15.9% it would be $15.04.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 7.5%. Discounted at 16.9% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 1.25 times a risk premium of 7.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $6.73 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 16.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 16.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $648.37M | extrapolated at 17.1% | 0.8556 | $554.75M |
| 2027 | $740.48M | extrapolated at 14.2% | 0.7321 | $542.08M |
| 2028 | $830.8M | extrapolated at 12.2% | 0.6264 | $520.38M |
| 2029 | $920.45M | extrapolated at 10.8% | 0.5359 | $493.29M |
| 2030 | $1.01B | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.4585 | $463.46M |
| 2031 | $1.1B | extrapolated at 9.1% | 0.3923 | $432.69M |
| 2032 | $1.2B | extrapolated at 8.6% | 0.3357 | $402.19M |
| 2033 | $1.3B | extrapolated at 8.3% | 0.2872 | $372.67M |
| 2034 | $1.4B | extrapolated at 8.1% | 0.2457 | $344.57M |
| 2035 | $1.51B | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.2103 | $318.09M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $4.44B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 7.5%) / (16.9% − 7.5%) | $17.37B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2103) | $3.65B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $8.1B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.20B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $6.73 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.05 |
| × 21.4 (industry P/E) | $22.52 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $14.62 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 7 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.