Universal stock: fair value
UVVThe fair value of Universal under our model is $123.76, the price is 70% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $95.20 and expensive above $176.80 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $101.96, at 7.8% it would be $156.55.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.01 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $123.76 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $92.72M | extrapolated at 32.5% | 0.9189 | $85.19M |
| 2028 | $114.9M | extrapolated at 23.9% | 0.8443 | $97.02M |
| 2029 | $135.47M | extrapolated at 17.9% | 0.7758 | $105.1M |
| 2030 | $154M | extrapolated at 13.7% | 0.7129 | $109.78M |
| 2031 | $170.52M | extrapolated at 10.7% | 0.6550 | $111.69M |
| 2032 | $185.28M | extrapolated at 8.7% | 0.6019 | $111.52M |
| 2033 | $198.63M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.5530 | $109.85M |
| 2034 | $210.94M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.5082 | $107.19M |
| 2035 | $222.51M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.4669 | $103.9M |
| 2036 | $233.61M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4291 | $100.23M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.04B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $4.85B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $2.08B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.12B |
| Shares (diluted) | 25.23M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $123.76 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $123.76 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.