UMB Financial stock: fair value
UMBFThe fair value of UMB Financial under our model is $184.27, the price is 28% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $153.55 and expensive above $230.33 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $207.20 (excess return model) and $161.33 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $167.00, at 7.8% it would be $210.17.
Where the number comes from
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (12.2).
Excess return model for banks and insurers: book value plus the value of returns above the cost of equity of 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the excess return model arrives at $207.20 per share: book value plus the value of what the company earns above its cost of equity over time. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $102.65 |
| Stable earnings per share (analyst estimates) | $14.29 |
| Return on equity in the model (stable earnings divided by book value) | 13.9% |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% |
| Excess return per share: (return − cost) × book value | $5.23 |
| Terminal value of excess returns: excess return / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $104.55 |
| Value per share (book value plus terminal value) | $207.20 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $13.19 |
| × 12.2 (industry P/E) | $161.33 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $184.27 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 29 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.