Ultrapar Participações stock
UGPNYSEUltrapar Participações S.A., EnergyISIN US90400P1012
71Score 71 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
42 / 100
Price history
+25% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 9.1% below it.
Since July 2025 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 4).
The price is 32% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 85% (October 2013 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$7.11
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$5.97
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)4
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$3.63
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$7.97
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ultrapar Participações S.A. belongs to the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (Brazil) and, with a market value of $5.84B, is number 19 of 31 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- This is an American depositary receipt (ADR).
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $25.62B (up 6.6% year on year) and earnings of $441.62M (up 3.9%).
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- MEQIRI Score 71 out of 100 (Strong): rank 46 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
- The P/E is 9 (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median 7.5, own median of recent years 22.4).
- Our model puts fair value at $7.54, with the price 28% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 30.3% a year since 2021.Growth 91
- High dividend yieldDividend yield 6.96%, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median 2.05%.Capital allocation 95
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 169% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 96
Weaknesses
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 5% a year through 2027 (estimates from 2 analysts).
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 2.6 times.Stability 55
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and capital allocation, while technical analysis holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
- high price swings
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $5.38 and expensive above $12.56 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $10.56 (cash-flow model) and $4.51 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 13.5%. At 14.5% the fair value would be $6.78, at 12.5% it would be $8.60.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (7.5).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue rose 11.6% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2006, at around 20% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 7%, operating 3%, net 2%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 24 Feb 2027in 104 days
- Last reported
- 11 Nov 2026above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- 4.6−1.0%
- Revenue
- $29.41B−0.4%
- Earnings per share
- 3.34+0.4%
- Revenue
- $29.12B+0.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +5.3%Third-quarter margins are expected below the second quarter (closer to the first quarter) and EBITDA similar to the third quarter of 2025, no guidance change.
“As a result, we expect EBITDA to remain at a level similar to that reported in the third quarter of 2025.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 13 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 4 insiders sold, $1.04M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Shares and prices per ordinary share as filed with the SEC, not per depositary receipt.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ultrapar Participações
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 71
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- S-Oil010950.KS $9.05B54
- Kunlun Energy0135.HK $8.62B66
- PBF EnergyPBF $8.27B69
- Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth RefineriesMOH.AT $7.27B74
- HELLENiQ ENERGY HoldingsELPE.AT $5.76B73
- Petronet LNGPETRONET.NS $5.28B75
- RubisRUI.PA $4.14B61
- CVR EnergyCVI $4.08B62
ETFs that hold Ultrapar Participações
Held by 41 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin FTSE Brazil UCITS ETF USDFLXB | 0.96% | 0.19% | €232.67M |
| iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (DE)4BRZ | 0.93% | 0.27% | €3.88B |
| Invesco FTSE Emerging Markets High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETFEHDL | 0.80% | 0.49% | €262.11M |
Show 5 more
| iShares MSCI EM Latin America UCITS ETF USDIUSC | 0.47% | 0.20% | €1.71B |
| WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income UCITS ETFWTEI | 0.35% | 0.46% | €256.08M |
| iShares MSCI EM Consumer Growth UCITS ETFCEMG | 0.20% | 0.60% | €31.52M |
| UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD accUETE | 0.15% | 0.24% | €2.81B |
| Invesco RAFI Emerging Markets Fundamental Value UCITS ETF6PSK | 0.15% | 0.49% | €85.48M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 11 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.5565)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 26 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 8 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.