UGI stock: fair value
UGIThe fair value of UGI under our model is $52.42, the price is 29% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $43.69 and expensive above $65.53 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $43.65 (cash-flow model) and $61.20 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.4%. At 8.4% the fair value would be $47.65, at 6.4% it would be $60.92.
Where the number comes from
Half from the dividend model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.6).
Dividend model: the dividend grows by 3.8% a year for good and is discounted at 7.4% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 0.8 times a risk premium of 4.5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the dividend model arrives at $43.65 per share: next year's dividend divided by the gap between the discount rate and growth. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend per share | $1.50 |
| Next dividend: × (1 + 3.8%) | $1.56 |
| Value per share: next dividend / (7.4% − 3.8%) | $43.65 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $3.13 |
| × 19.6 (industry P/E) | $61.20 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $52.42 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Sep 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 14 Aug 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.