Trakcja stock: fair value
TRK.WAThe fair value of Trakcja under our model is $1.51, the price is 50% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.08 and expensive above $2.52 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.89 (cash-flow model) and $1.14 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.3%. At 12.3% the fair value would be $1.37, at 10.3% it would be $1.72.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 11.3% (government bond yield 5.6% plus beta 1.08 times a risk premium of 5.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.89 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $38.8M | extrapolated at 19.7% | 0.8984 | $34.86M |
| 2027 | $44.8M | extrapolated at 15.5% | 0.8072 | $36.16M |
| 2028 | $50.4M | extrapolated at 12.5% | 0.7252 | $36.55M |
| 2029 | $55.65M | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.6515 | $36.26M |
| 2030 | $60.64M | extrapolated at 9.0% | 0.5854 | $35.5M |
| 2031 | $65.46M | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.5259 | $34.42M |
| 2032 | $70.18M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.4725 | $33.16M |
| 2033 | $74.91M | extrapolated at 6.7% | 0.4245 | $31.8M |
| 2034 | $79.68M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.3814 | $30.39M |
| 2035 | $84.57M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.3427 | $28.98M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $338.08M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 5.6%) / (11.3% − 5.6%) | $1.55B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3427) | $532.44M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $870.52M |
| Shares (diluted) | 461.45M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.89 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.06 |
| × 19.2 (industry P/E) | $1.14 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $1.51 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.