AB Traction stock: fair value
TRAC-B.STThe fair value of AB Traction under our model is $36.60, the price is 26% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $26.14 and expensive above $60.99 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $54.71 (cash-flow model) and $18.48 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $31.67, at 6.2% it would be $44.01.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $54.71 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $18.89M | extrapolated at 44.2% | 0.9330 | $17.62M |
| 2027 | $24.86M | extrapolated at 31.6% | 0.8705 | $21.64M |
| 2028 | $30.52M | extrapolated at 22.8% | 0.8122 | $24.79M |
| 2029 | $35.59M | extrapolated at 16.6% | 0.7578 | $26.97M |
| 2030 | $39.95M | extrapolated at 12.3% | 0.7070 | $28.25M |
| 2031 | $43.65M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.6597 | $28.79M |
| 2032 | $46.76M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.6155 | $28.78M |
| 2033 | $49.4M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.5742 | $28.37M |
| 2034 | $51.67M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.5358 | $27.68M |
| 2035 | $53.67M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4999 | $26.83M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $259.71M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $1.1B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4999) | $548.31M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $808.02M |
| Shares (diluted) | 14.77M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $54.71 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.32 |
| × 14 (industry P/E) | $18.48 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $36.60 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.