Telekomunikasi Indonesia stock: fair value
TLKThe fair value of Telekomunikasi Indonesia under our model is $23.46, the price is 51% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $18.04 and expensive above $33.51 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $30.62 (cash-flow model) and $16.30 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.2%. At 10.2% the fair value would be $21.09, at 8.2% it would be $26.91.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (16.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 0.8 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $30.62 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.82B | extrapolated at −2.6% | 0.9159 | $1.67B |
| 2027 | $1.81B | extrapolated at −0.7% | 0.8389 | $1.52B |
| 2028 | $1.82B | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.7683 | $1.4B |
| 2029 | $1.85B | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.7037 | $1.3B |
| 2030 | $1.89B | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.6445 | $1.22B |
| 2031 | $1.95B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5903 | $1.15B |
| 2032 | $2B | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5407 | $1.08B |
| 2033 | $2.07B | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4952 | $1.03B |
| 2034 | $2.14B | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4536 | $971.83M |
| 2035 | $2.22B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.4154 | $921.87M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $12.26B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.2% − 3.8%) | $43.05B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4154) | $17.88B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $30.15B |
| Shares (diluted) | 984.68M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $30.62 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.00 |
| × 16.3 (industry P/E) | $16.30 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $23.46 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = IDR 18,252.65)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Apr 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.