thyssenkrupp stock: fair value
TKA.DEThe fair value of thyssenkrupp under our model is $7.73, the price is 78% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $5.52 and expensive above $12.89 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $4.78 (cash-flow model) and $10.69 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $7.31, at 6.1% it would be $8.38.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (20.9).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.1% (floor: government bond yield 2.1% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $4.78 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $71.59M | extrapolated at 42.5% | 0.9334 | $66.82M |
| 2027 | $93.36M | extrapolated at 30.4% | 0.8712 | $81.33M |
| 2028 | $113.83M | extrapolated at 21.9% | 0.8131 | $92.55M |
| 2029 | $132.03M | extrapolated at 16.0% | 0.7589 | $100.2M |
| 2030 | $147.66M | extrapolated at 11.8% | 0.7083 | $104.59M |
| 2031 | $160.84M | extrapolated at 8.9% | 0.6611 | $106.33M |
| 2032 | $171.92M | extrapolated at 6.9% | 0.6171 | $106.09M |
| 2033 | $181.31M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.5760 | $104.43M |
| 2034 | $189.42M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.5376 | $101.82M |
| 2035 | $196.56M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.5017 | $98.62M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $962.79M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.1% − 2.1%) | $4.02B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5017) | $2.01B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.98B |
| Shares (diluted) | 622.53M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $4.78 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.51 |
| × 20.9 (industry P/E) | $10.69 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $7.73 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Sep 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Dec 2023)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 8 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.