BBB Foods stock: fair value
TBBBThe fair value of BBB Foods under our model is $19.87, the price is 242% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.19 and expensive above $33.11 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 14.4%. At 15.4% the fair value would be $16.71, at 13.4% it would be $24.47.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 9.1%. Discounted at 14.4% (government bond yield 9.1% plus beta 0.8 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.87 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 14.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 14.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $117.41M | extrapolated at 13.2% | 0.8739 | $102.61M |
| 2027 | $131.43M | extrapolated at 11.9% | 0.7637 | $100.37M |
| 2028 | $145.99M | extrapolated at 11.1% | 0.6674 | $97.43M |
| 2029 | $161.29M | extrapolated at 10.5% | 0.5832 | $94.06M |
| 2030 | $177.52M | extrapolated at 10.1% | 0.5096 | $90.47M |
| 2031 | $194.86M | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.4454 | $86.78M |
| 2032 | $213.48M | extrapolated at 9.6% | 0.3892 | $83.09M |
| 2033 | $233.59M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.3401 | $79.44M |
| 2034 | $255.35M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.2972 | $75.89M |
| 2035 | $278.95M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.2597 | $72.45M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $882.6M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 9.1%) / (14.4% − 9.1%) | $5.69B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2597) | $1.48B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.36B |
| Shares (diluted) | 118.76M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.87 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $19.87 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = MX$18.6908)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.