AS Tallink Grupp stock: fair value
TALLINK.HEThe fair value of AS Tallink Grupp under our model is $1.90, the price is 63% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.36 and expensive above $3.17 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $3.43 (cash-flow model) and $0.38 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.1%. At 10.1% the fair value would be $1.65, at 8.1% it would be $2.26.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (8.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.1%. Discounted at 9.1% (government bond yield 3.1% plus beta 1.16 times a risk premium of 5.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $3.43 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $107.47M | extrapolated at 23.0% | 0.9169 | $98.53M |
| 2027 | $125.75M | extrapolated at 17.0% | 0.8407 | $105.71M |
| 2028 | $141.89M | extrapolated at 12.8% | 0.7708 | $109.37M |
| 2029 | $155.95M | extrapolated at 9.9% | 0.7067 | $110.21M |
| 2030 | $168.21M | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.6480 | $108.99M |
| 2031 | $179.02M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.5941 | $106.35M |
| 2032 | $188.72M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.5447 | $102.8M |
| 2033 | $197.63M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4994 | $98.7M |
| 2034 | $205.98M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4579 | $94.32M |
| 2035 | $213.98M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4199 | $89.84M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.02B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.1%) / (9.1% − 3.1%) | $3.68B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4199) | $1.55B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.57B |
| Shares (diluted) | 749.89M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $3.43 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.05 |
| × 8.1 (industry P/E) | $0.38 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $1.90 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.