Smith & Wesson Brands stock: fair value
SWBIThe fair value of Smith & Wesson Brands under our model is $17.59, the price is 11% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.57 and expensive above $29.32 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $18.34 (cash-flow model) and $16.84 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $16.14, at 7.8% it would be $19.77.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.05 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $18.34 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $58.97M | extrapolated at −14.1% | 0.9189 | $54.19M |
| 2028 | $53.82M | extrapolated at −8.7% | 0.8443 | $45.44M |
| 2029 | $51.15M | extrapolated at −5.0% | 0.7758 | $39.68M |
| 2030 | $49.96M | extrapolated at −2.3% | 0.7129 | $35.62M |
| 2031 | $49.72M | extrapolated at −0.5% | 0.6550 | $32.57M |
| 2032 | $50.13M | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.6019 | $30.17M |
| 2033 | $50.99M | extrapolated at 1.7% | 0.5530 | $28.2M |
| 2034 | $52.19M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.5082 | $26.52M |
| 2035 | $53.64M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4669 | $25.05M |
| 2036 | $55.31M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.4291 | $23.73M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $341.17M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $1.15B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $492.81M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $833.97M |
| Shares (diluted) | 45.48M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $18.34 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.54 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $16.84 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $17.59 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Apr 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.