Stoke Therapeutics stock: fair value
STOKThe fair value of Stoke Therapeutics under our model is $19.51, the price is 34% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $13.93 and expensive above $32.51 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.2%. At 10.2% the fair value would be $16.35, at 8.2% it would be $24.11.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.21 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.51 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $53.67M | extrapolated at 19.9% | 0.9155 | $49.13M |
| 2027 | $61.77M | extrapolated at 15.1% | 0.8381 | $51.77M |
| 2028 | $69.01M | extrapolated at 11.7% | 0.7673 | $52.95M |
| 2029 | $75.46M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.7024 | $53M |
| 2030 | $81.26M | extrapolated at 7.7% | 0.6431 | $52.26M |
| 2031 | $86.57M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.5887 | $50.97M |
| 2032 | $91.53M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5390 | $49.33M |
| 2033 | $96.24M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.4934 | $47.49M |
| 2034 | $100.82M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4517 | $45.55M |
| 2035 | $105.34M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4136 | $43.56M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $496.01M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.2% − 3.8%) | $2.03B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4136) | $837.47M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.33B |
| Shares (diluted) | 68.36M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.51 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $19.51 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 15 Aug 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.