Saipem stock: fair value
SPM.MIThe fair value of Saipem under our model is $17.59, the price is 73% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.57 and expensive above $29.32 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $31.40 (cash-flow model) and $3.78 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.2%. At 11.2% the fair value would be $15.35, at 9.2% it would be $20.64.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.5%. Discounted at 10.2% (government bond yield 3.5% plus beta 1.01 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $31.40 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.85B | extrapolated at 50.1% | 0.9071 | $1.67B |
| 2027 | $2.51B | extrapolated at 36.1% | 0.8228 | $2.07B |
| 2028 | $3.17B | extrapolated at 26.3% | 0.7463 | $2.37B |
| 2029 | $3.79B | extrapolated at 19.5% | 0.6770 | $2.57B |
| 2030 | $4.35B | extrapolated at 14.7% | 0.6141 | $2.67B |
| 2031 | $4.84B | extrapolated at 11.3% | 0.5570 | $2.7B |
| 2032 | $5.28B | extrapolated at 9.0% | 0.5052 | $2.67B |
| 2033 | $5.66B | extrapolated at 7.3% | 0.4583 | $2.6B |
| 2034 | $6.01B | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.4157 | $2.5B |
| 2035 | $6.34B | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.3771 | $2.39B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $24.19B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.5%) / (10.2% − 3.5%) | $97.42B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3771) | $36.74B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $60.93B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.94B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $31.40 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.15 |
| × 24.8 (industry P/E) | $3.78 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $17.59 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Apr 2024)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.