Sonos stock: fair value
SONOThe fair value of Sonos under our model is $32.91, the price is 45% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $23.50 and expensive above $54.84 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.8%. At 10.8% the fair value would be $27.91, at 8.8% it would be $39.93.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.8% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.34 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $32.91 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $143.53M | extrapolated at 31.2% | 0.9105 | $130.69M |
| 2028 | $176.49M | extrapolated at 23.0% | 0.8291 | $146.32M |
| 2029 | $206.88M | extrapolated at 17.2% | 0.7549 | $156.18M |
| 2030 | $234.19M | extrapolated at 13.2% | 0.6874 | $160.98M |
| 2031 | $258.53M | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.6259 | $161.82M |
| 2032 | $280.3M | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.5699 | $159.75M |
| 2033 | $300.05M | extrapolated at 7.0% | 0.5189 | $155.71M |
| 2034 | $318.29M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.4725 | $150.4M |
| 2035 | $335.5M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.4303 | $144.35M |
| 2036 | $352.05M | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.3918 | $137.92M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.5B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.8% − 3.8%) | $6.1B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3918) | $2.39B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.89B |
| Shares (diluted) | 118.31M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $32.91 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $32.91 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 3 Oct 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.