Sonae SGPS stock: fair value
SON.LSThe fair value of Sonae SGPS under our model is $3.80, the price is 33% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.71 and expensive above $6.33 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $5.32 (cash-flow model) and $2.29 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.1%. At 13.1% the fair value would be $3.53, at 11.1% it would be $4.13.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (18.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 12.1% (government bond yield 2.8% plus beta 1.61 times a risk premium of 5.8%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $5.32 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $839.49M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.8920 | $748.8M |
| 2027 | $919.44M | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.7956 | $731.53M |
| 2028 | $988.52M | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.7097 | $701.53M |
| 2029 | $1.05B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.6330 | $663.95M |
| 2030 | $1.1B | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.5646 | $622.55M |
| 2031 | $1.15B | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.5036 | $579.9M |
| 2032 | $1.2B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4492 | $537.67M |
| 2033 | $1.24B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.4007 | $496.89M |
| 2034 | $1.28B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.3574 | $458.16M |
| 2035 | $1.32B | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.3188 | $421.78M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $5.96B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (12.1% − 2.8%) | $14.64B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3188) | $4.67B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $10.63B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.00B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $5.32 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.12 |
| × 18.8 (industry P/E) | $2.29 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $3.80 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Feb 2021)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.