Standard Motor Products stock: fair value
SMPThe fair value of Standard Motor Products under our model is $37.75, the price is 16% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $26.96 and expensive above $62.91 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $16.60 (cash-flow model) and $58.90 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9%. At 10% the fair value would be $36.42, at 8% it would be $39.72.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.0% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.16 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.60 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $20.64M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.9172 | $18.93M |
| 2027 | $21.11M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.8413 | $17.76M |
| 2028 | $21.69M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.7717 | $16.74M |
| 2029 | $22.36M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.7078 | $15.83M |
| 2030 | $23.1M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.6492 | $15M |
| 2031 | $23.9M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.5955 | $14.23M |
| 2032 | $24.75M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.5462 | $13.52M |
| 2033 | $25.65M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5010 | $12.85M |
| 2034 | $26.6M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.4595 | $12.22M |
| 2035 | $27.6M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.4215 | $11.63M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $148.72M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.0% − 3.8%) | $551.63M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4215) | $232.49M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $381.2M |
| Shares (diluted) | 22.97M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $16.60 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $4.00 |
| × 14.7 (industry P/E) | $58.90 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $37.75 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.