AB SKF (publ) stock: fair value
SKF-A.STThe fair value of AB SKF (publ) under our model is $22.94, the price is 24% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $17.65 and expensive above $32.77 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $20.18 (cash-flow model) and $25.71 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $21.22, at 6.2% it would be $25.53.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.94 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $20.18 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $398.64M | extrapolated at 13.7% | 0.9330 | $371.94M |
| 2027 | $439.44M | extrapolated at 10.2% | 0.8705 | $382.54M |
| 2028 | $473.8M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.8122 | $384.82M |
| 2029 | $502.83M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.7578 | $381.04M |
| 2030 | $527.69M | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.7070 | $373.08M |
| 2031 | $549.4M | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.6597 | $362.41M |
| 2032 | $568.81M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.6155 | $350.08M |
| 2033 | $586.6M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5742 | $336.85M |
| 2034 | $603.28M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.5358 | $323.22M |
| 2035 | $619.23M | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.4999 | $309.54M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $3.58B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $12.65B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4999) | $6.33B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $9.9B |
| Shares (diluted) | 490.72M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $20.18 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.05 |
| × 24.4 (industry P/E) | $25.71 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $22.94 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.