RTL Group stock: fair value
RRTL.DEThe fair value of RTL Group under our model is $43.12, the price is 18% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $33.17 and expensive above $61.60 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.5%. At 8.5% the fair value would be $36.08, at 6.5% it would be $53.66.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.5%. Discounted at 7.5% (floor: government bond yield 2.5% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $43.12 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $382.45M | extrapolated at −5.8% | 0.9304 | $355.83M |
| 2027 | $369.8M | extrapolated at −3.3% | 0.8657 | $320.12M |
| 2028 | $363.99M | extrapolated at −1.6% | 0.8054 | $293.16M |
| 2029 | $362.7M | extrapolated at −0.4% | 0.7494 | $271.79M |
| 2030 | $364.5M | extrapolated at 0.5% | 0.6972 | $254.13M |
| 2031 | $368.47M | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.6487 | $239.02M |
| 2032 | $374.03M | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.6035 | $225.74M |
| 2033 | $380.76M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.5615 | $213.81M |
| 2034 | $388.39M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.5225 | $202.92M |
| 2035 | $396.72M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.4861 | $192.85M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.57B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.5%) / (7.5% − 2.5%) | $8.13B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4861) | $3.95B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $6.52B |
| Shares (diluted) | 151.26M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $43.12 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $43.12 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 15 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.