Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock: fair value
RAREThe fair value of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical under our model is $22.12, the price is 26% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $14.75 and expensive above $44.25 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.1%. At 13.1% the fair value would be $19.64, at 11.1% it would be $25.27.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model: 5 years from analyst estimates, then extrapolated until growth reaches 3.8% (five-year average government bond yield). Discounted at 12.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.86 times a risk premium of 4.5%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $22.12 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | −$223.54M | Estimate, 11 analysts | 0.8919 | −$199.37M |
| 2027 | $253.33M | Estimate, 10 analysts | 0.7954 | $201.51M |
| 2028 | $420.75M | Estimate, 12 analysts | 0.7094 | $298.5M |
| 2029 | $420.23M | Estimate, 9 analysts | 0.6327 | $265.89M |
| 2030 | $224.48M | Estimate, 5 analysts | 0.5643 | $126.68M |
| 2031 | $231.88M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.5033 | $116.71M |
| 2032 | $239.9M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4489 | $107.69M |
| 2033 | $248.46M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.4003 | $99.47M |
| 2034 | $257.52M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.3571 | $91.95M |
| 2035 | $267.06M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.3185 | $85.04M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.19B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.1% − 3.8%) | $3.34B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3185) | $1.06B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.26B |
| Shares (diluted) | 102.10M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $22.12 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $22.12 |
In the years with estimates, the model derives free cash flow from estimated earnings and revenue, because there are no estimates for the cash flow itself. The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jan 2015)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.