Pagaya Technologies stock
PGYNASDAQPagaya Technologies Ltd., TechnologyISIN IL0011858912
71Score 71 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
59 / 100
Price history
−35% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 6 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 3.5% above it.
Since August 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 39).
The price is 35% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 6 years: 98% (August 2022 to December 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$18.98
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$16.30
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)39
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$10.64
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$26.03
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Pagaya Technologies Ltd. belongs to the Software (Infrastructure) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.42B, is number 74 of 97 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.47B (up 16.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.74 (up 95.1%).
- MEQIRI Score 71 out of 100 (Strong): rank 217 of 854 in Technology, median 61.
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- The P/E is 10.9 (Software (Infrastructure) median 25.6, own median of recent years 21.1).
- Our model puts fair value at $33.41, with the price 50% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 68.9% a year since 2020, Software (Infrastructure) median 17.9%.Growth 100
- High return on capitalReturn on invested capital 39% in fiscal 2025, Software (Infrastructure) median 5.5%.Profitability 81
- Modestly valuedP/E 10.9, Software (Infrastructure) median 25.6, own median 21.1.Valuation 91
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 326% since 2020.Capital allocation 54
- Volatile share priceVolatility 73% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 60
- High debtDebt 1.53 times equity (latest quarter), Software (Infrastructure) median 0.44.Stability 60
Its standout strengths are growth and valuation, while momentum holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high price swings
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
- price far below its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $22.27 and expensive above $66.82 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $27.29 (cash-flow model) and $39.52 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $32.38, at 10.7% it would be $34.71.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.6).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 10.8% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2019, at around 81% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 41%, operating 18%, net 6%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterMeaningfully leveraged, but the interest bill is comfortably covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 8 Feb 2027in 87 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.07 (expected $0.47)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have raised their 2026 earnings estimate by 4.8% since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $1.74+4.8%
- Revenue
- $1.47B+0.4%
- Earnings per share
- $2.33+0.6%
- Revenue
- $1.71B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −6.1%Pagaya raised its net income guidance for the third time this year, now expecting 2026 GAAP net income of 162 to 182 million and a milder seasonal Q4 volume decline of 5% to 6% versus 9% in 2025.
“Ex Klarna, the Q4 2026 seasonal decline is expected to be milder than what we saw in 2025, about 5% to 6% versus 9% in 2025. FRLPC as a percentage of volume is expected near the lower end of the 4% to 5% range.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $250,468 in total. 5 insiders sold, $3.26M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Dobres JonathanSale
10 Nov 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 10,217
- Price
- $17.07
- Value
- $174,421
- Rosen TamiSale
2 Oct 2026, Board
- Shares
- 1,986
- Price
- $17.83
- Value
- $35,410
- Vieira CorySale
28 Sept 2026, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 2,170
- Price
- $17.04
- Value
- $36,977
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- Das SanjivSale
28 Sept 2026, President
- Shares
- 14,300
- Price
- $17.04
- Value
- $243,672
- Dobres JonathanSale
28 Sept 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 590
- Price
- $17.04
- Value
- $10,054
- Rosen TamiSale
18 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 8,504
- Price
- $20.38
- Value
- $173,348
- Dobres JonathanSale
17 Sept 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 2,183
- Price
- $21.04
- Value
- $45,930
- Rosen TamiSale
12 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 7,121
- Price
- $20.21
- Value
- $143,915
- Das SanjivSale
12 Sept 2026, President
- Shares
- 13,301
- Price
- $20.21
- Value
- $268,813
- Dobres JonathanSale
12 Sept 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 582
- Price
- $20.21
- Value
- $11,762
- Rosen TamiSale
3 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 1,265
- Price
- $23.07
- Value
- $29,184
- Vieira CorySale
2 Sept 2026, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 3,075
- Price
- $22.71
- Value
- $69,833
- Rosen TamiSale
3 Aug 2026, Board
- Shares
- 28,181
- Price
- $21.98
- Value
- $619,370
- Das SanjivSale
3 Aug 2026, President
- Shares
- 21,289
- Price
- $22.00
- Value
- $468,358
- Dobres JonathanSale
25 Jun 2026, Chief Financial Officer
- Shares
- 403
- Price
- $15.48
- Value
- $6,238
- Vieira CorySale
25 Jun 2026, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 1,458
- Price
- $15.83
- Value
- $23,080
- Das SanjivSale
25 Jun 2026, President
- Shares
- 14,000
- Price
- $15.83
- Value
- $221,620
- Krubiner GalPurchase
24 Jun 2026, Chief Executive Officer
- Shares
- 16,230
- Price
- $15.43
- Value
- $250,468
- Rosen TamiSale
22 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 9,944
- Price
- $15.20
- Value
- $151,132
- Perros EvangelosSale
12 Jun 2026, other: Former Officer
- Shares
- 11,558
- Price
- $16.23
- Value
- $187,586
- Das SanjivSale
12 Jun 2026, President
- Shares
- 13,309
- Price
- $16.23
- Value
- $216,005
- Rosen TamiSale
12 Jun 2026, Board
- Shares
- 5,681
- Price
- $16.23
- Value
- $92,203
- Vieira CorySale
2 Jun 2026, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 2,140
- Price
- $15.01
- Value
- $32,121
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Pagaya Technologies
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
854 rated companies in Technology
- This company
- 71
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Software (Infrastructure)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Progress SoftwarePRGS $1.78B68
- StoneCoSTNE $1.77B59
- YubicoYUBICO.ST $1.51B67
- NextNavNN $1.47B31
- BandwidthBAND $1.41B45
- secunet Security NetworksYSN.DE $1.39B56
- RadwareRDWR $1.34B59
- Rapid7RPD $986.92M51
ETFs that hold Pagaya Technologies
Held by 8 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.14% | 0.39% | €1.49B |
| iShares Digitalisation UCITS ETF2B79 | 0.05% | 0.40% | €736.08M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.01% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
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| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.01% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.01% | 0.45% | €1.54B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €178.55M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF (Acc)SPYI | 0.00% | 0.17% | €8.84B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.