Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings stock
OLLINASDAQOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc., Consumer DefensiveISIN US6811161099
64Score 64 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
71 / 100
Price history
−26% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 11 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 10% above it.
Since December 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 62).
The price is 26% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 11 years: 66% (May 2019 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$85.79
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$86.15
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)62
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$61.88
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$128.62
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. belongs to the Discount Stores industry (United States) and, with a market value of $5.63B, is number 11 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $2.65B (up 16.6% year on year) and earnings of $240.6M (up 20.4%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.94B (up 10.8%) and adjusted earnings per share of $4.61 (up 18.9%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 64 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 133 of 296 in Consumer Defensive, median 62.
- The P/E is 20.9 (Discount Stores median 21, own median of recent years 27.4).
- Our model puts fair value at $118.28, with the price 20% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 82
- Share buybacksShare count down 5% since 2020.Capital allocation 62
Weaknesses
None of our weakness checks flags anything. Crash risk is measured separately.
Its standout strengths are fundamentals and stability, while growth holds the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 66 to 64.
Fundamentals are strong, with stable profits and strong cash generation.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $84.48 and expensive above $197.13 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $141.22 (cash-flow model) and $95.33 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $105.65, at 7.8% it would be $137.28.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 1 Aug 2026, revenue rose 14.4% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2013, at around 14% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 39%, operating 12%, net 9%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 9 Dec 2026in 26 days
- Last reported
- 2 Sep 2026EPS reported $1.42 (expected $1.12)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $4.61+0.1%
- Revenue
- $2.94B0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $4.96+0.1%
- Revenue
- $3.26B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook mixed
Share price after the results: +1.9%Second-half sales guidance was lowered, while the outlook now includes the tariff refunds received in Q2.
“At a high level, our outlook assumes 75 new store openings, 2 store closures from storm damage, net sales of $2.928 billion to $2.941 billion, comparable store sales growth of flat to positive 0.5%, gross margin in the range of 41.3%, operating income of $345 million to $350 million, adjusted net income of $275 …”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 2 Sep 2026 (fiscal Q2 2027), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
296 rated companies in Consumer Defensive
- This company
- 64
- Sector median
- 62
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Discount Stores
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Avenue SupermartsDMART.NS $23.95B53
- BJ's Wholesale Club HoldingsBJ $14.01B63
- BBB FoodsTBBB $8.2B49
- Pepco GroupPCO.WA $7.1B73
- PriceSmartPSMT $5.09B67
- Distribuidora Internacional de AlimentaciónDIA.MC $3.15B62
- EuroprisEPR.OL $1.43B64
- Tokmanni GroupTOKMAN.HE $415.82M47
ETFs that hold Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.17% | 0.30% | €5.36B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.11% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.07% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
Show 5 more
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.06% | 0.10% | €395.74M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.06% | 0.35% | €8.27B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.02% | 0.25% | €178.55M |
| Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingV3AA | 0.01% | 0.24% | €1.69B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF (Acc)SPYI | 0.01% | 0.17% | €8.84B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Jan 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 25 Oct 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.