Newag stock: fair value
NWG.WAThe fair value of Newag under our model is $65.98, the price is 64% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $50.75 and expensive above $94.25 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $74.33 (cash-flow model) and $57.62 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.6%. At 11.6% the fair value would be $59.67, at 9.6% it would be $75.40.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (23.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 10.6% (government bond yield 5.6% plus beta 0.95 times a risk premium of 5.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $74.33 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $128.83M | extrapolated at 20.8% | 0.9039 | $116.44M |
| 2027 | $149.69M | extrapolated at 16.2% | 0.8170 | $122.29M |
| 2028 | $169.15M | extrapolated at 13.0% | 0.7384 | $124.91M |
| 2029 | $187.37M | extrapolated at 10.8% | 0.6674 | $125.06M |
| 2030 | $204.63M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.6033 | $123.44M |
| 2031 | $221.23M | extrapolated at 8.1% | 0.5453 | $120.63M |
| 2032 | $237.48M | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.4928 | $117.04M |
| 2033 | $253.66M | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.4455 | $113M |
| 2034 | $269.98M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.4026 | $108.71M |
| 2035 | $286.65M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.3639 | $104.32M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.18B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 5.6%) / (10.6% − 5.6%) | $5.96B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3639) | $2.17B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.35B |
| Shares (diluted) | 45.00M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $74.33 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.42 |
| × 23.8 (industry P/E) | $57.62 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $65.98 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.