Natural Resource Partners stock: fair value
NRPThe fair value of Natural Resource Partners under our model is $178.78, the price is 30% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $127.70 and expensive above $297.97 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $254.58 (cash-flow model) and $102.98 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $157.59, at 7.8% it would be $210.56.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (13.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $254.58 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $171.4M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.9189 | $157.5M |
| 2027 | $177.38M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.8443 | $149.76M |
| 2028 | $183.75M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.7758 | $142.55M |
| 2029 | $190.48M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.7129 | $135.79M |
| 2030 | $197.55M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.6550 | $129.4M |
| 2031 | $204.96M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.6019 | $123.36M |
| 2032 | $212.69M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.5530 | $117.63M |
| 2033 | $220.75M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.5082 | $112.18M |
| 2034 | $229.14M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4669 | $107M |
| 2035 | $237.87M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4291 | $102.06M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.28B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $4.94B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $2.12B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.4B |
| Shares (diluted) | 13.34M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $254.58 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $7.52 |
| × 13.7 (sector P/E) | $102.98 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $178.78 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jul 2022)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.