Nexa Resources stock: fair value
NEXAThe fair value of Nexa Resources under our model is $16.45, the price is 31% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.97 and expensive above $32.90 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $11.44 (cash-flow model) and $21.46 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.3%. At 13.3% the fair value would be $15.83, at 11.3% it would be $17.24.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $11.44 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $108.67M | extrapolated at 13.4% | 0.8906 | $96.78M |
| 2027 | $120.15M | extrapolated at 10.6% | 0.7931 | $95.29M |
| 2028 | $130.4M | extrapolated at 8.5% | 0.7063 | $92.1M |
| 2029 | $139.7M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.6290 | $87.87M |
| 2030 | $148.27M | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.5601 | $83.05M |
| 2031 | $156.34M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.4988 | $77.99M |
| 2032 | $164.1M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4442 | $72.9M |
| 2033 | $171.68M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.3956 | $67.92M |
| 2034 | $179.21M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.3523 | $63.14M |
| 2035 | $186.77M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.3138 | $58.6M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $795.63M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.3% − 3.8%) | $2.29B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3138) | $719.18M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.51B |
| Shares (diluted) | 132.44M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $11.44 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.10 |
| × 19.5 (industry P/E) | $21.46 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $16.45 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.