NewMarket stock: fair value
NEUThe fair value of NewMarket under our model is $1,729.76, the price is 59% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1,330.59 and expensive above $2,471.09 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2,245.36 (cash-flow model) and $1,214.17 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $1,533.18, at 7.8% it would be $2,025.36.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.91 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2,245.36 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $654.26M | extrapolated at 28.8% | 0.9189 | $601.17M |
| 2027 | $793.76M | extrapolated at 21.3% | 0.8443 | $670.18M |
| 2028 | $921.36M | extrapolated at 16.1% | 0.7758 | $714.8M |
| 2029 | $1.04B | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.7129 | $738.26M |
| 2030 | $1.14B | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.6550 | $745.04M |
| 2031 | $1.23B | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.6019 | $739.57M |
| 2032 | $1.31B | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.5530 | $725.57M |
| 2033 | $1.39B | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.5082 | $705.96M |
| 2034 | $1.46B | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.4669 | $682.87M |
| 2035 | $1.53B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4291 | $657.82M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.98B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $31.84B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $13.66B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $20.64B |
| Shares (diluted) | 9.19M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2,245.36 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $49.70 |
| × 24.4 (industry P/E) | $1,214.17 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $1,729.76 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.