NCC stock: fair value
NCC-B.STThe fair value of NCC under our model is $44.83, the price is 57% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $34.49 and expensive above $64.05 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $37.11, at 6.2% it would be $56.44.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.15 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $44.83 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $164.4M | extrapolated at 17.7% | 0.9330 | $153.38M |
| 2027 | $185.8M | extrapolated at 13.0% | 0.8705 | $161.74M |
| 2028 | $203.95M | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.8122 | $165.65M |
| 2029 | $219.23M | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.7578 | $166.13M |
| 2030 | $232.17M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.7070 | $164.15M |
| 2031 | $243.27M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.6597 | $160.48M |
| 2032 | $253.01M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.6155 | $155.72M |
| 2033 | $261.75M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.5742 | $150.31M |
| 2034 | $269.79M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5358 | $144.55M |
| 2035 | $277.36M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4999 | $138.65M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.56B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $5.67B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4999) | $2.83B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.39B |
| Shares (diluted) | 98.01M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $44.83 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $44.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.