Lagardere stock: fair value
MMB.PAThe fair value of Lagardere under our model is $75.96, the price is 73% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $54.26 and expensive above $126.61 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $114.69 (cash-flow model) and $37.24 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $69.97, at 10.7% it would be $83.48.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 11.7% (government bond yield 2.8% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $114.69 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.21B | extrapolated at 13.6% | 0.8953 | $1.09B |
| 2027 | $1.34B | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.8015 | $1.07B |
| 2028 | $1.45B | extrapolated at 8.1% | 0.7175 | $1.04B |
| 2029 | $1.54B | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.6424 | $989.53M |
| 2030 | $1.62B | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.5751 | $933.6M |
| 2031 | $1.7B | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.5149 | $874.3M |
| 2032 | $1.77B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.4609 | $814.48M |
| 2033 | $1.83B | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.4126 | $755.95M |
| 2034 | $1.89B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.3694 | $699.82M |
| 2035 | $1.96B | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.3307 | $646.68M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $8.91B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (11.7% − 2.8%) | $22.53B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3307) | $7.45B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $16.36B |
| Shares (diluted) | 142.66M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $114.69 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.63 |
| × 22.8 (industry P/E) | $37.24 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $75.96 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.