Metro stock: fair value
MEO2.VIThe fair value of Metro under our model is $16.65, the price is 52% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $11.89 and expensive above $27.75 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $13.94, at 6.1% it would be $20.71.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.1% (floor: government bond yield 2.1% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.65 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $360.12M | extrapolated at −7.3% | 0.9334 | $336.12M |
| 2027 | $343.98M | extrapolated at −4.5% | 0.8712 | $299.66M |
| 2028 | $335.39M | extrapolated at −2.5% | 0.8131 | $272.71M |
| 2029 | $331.68M | extrapolated at −1.1% | 0.7589 | $251.72M |
| 2030 | $331.24M | extrapolated at −0.1% | 0.7083 | $234.63M |
| 2031 | $333.07M | extrapolated at 0.5% | 0.6611 | $220.2M |
| 2032 | $336.49M | extrapolated at 1.0% | 0.6171 | $207.64M |
| 2033 | $341.06M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.5760 | $196.44M |
| 2034 | $346.5M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.5376 | $186.27M |
| 2035 | $352.59M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.5017 | $176.91M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.38B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.1% − 2.1%) | $7.2B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5017) | $3.61B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $6B |
| Shares (diluted) | 360.12M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $16.65 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $16.65 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Sep 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jan 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.