LSI Industries stock: fair value
LYTSThe fair value of LSI Industries under our model is $16.85, the price is 10% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.04 and expensive above $28.08 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $18.24 (cash-flow model) and $15.46 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.3%. At 13.3% the fair value would be $15.85, at 11.3% it would be $18.12.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.91 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $18.24 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $46.44M | extrapolated at 17.6% | 0.8902 | $41.34M |
| 2028 | $52.7M | extrapolated at 13.5% | 0.7925 | $41.76M |
| 2029 | $58.28M | extrapolated at 10.6% | 0.7054 | $41.12M |
| 2030 | $63.27M | extrapolated at 8.6% | 0.6280 | $39.73M |
| 2031 | $67.79M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.5590 | $37.9M |
| 2032 | $71.96M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.4977 | $35.81M |
| 2033 | $75.88M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.4430 | $33.62M |
| 2034 | $79.65M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.3944 | $31.41M |
| 2035 | $83.33M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.3511 | $29.26M |
| 2036 | $86.99M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.3125 | $27.19M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $359.13M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.3% − 3.8%) | $1.06B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3125) | $331.93M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $691.06M |
| Shares (diluted) | 37.89M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $18.24 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.59 |
| × 26.1 (industry P/E) | $15.46 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $16.85 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Jun 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 22 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.