LSB Industries stock: fair value
LXUThe fair value of LSB Industries under our model is $6.04, the price is 93% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $4.32 and expensive above $10.07 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.95 (cash-flow model) and $10.13 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $5.89, at 7.8% it would be $6.26.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (15.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.95 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $12.27M | extrapolated at −25.2% | 0.9189 | $11.27M |
| 2027 | $10.24M | extrapolated at −16.5% | 0.8443 | $8.65M |
| 2028 | $9.18M | extrapolated at −10.4% | 0.7758 | $7.12M |
| 2029 | $8.61M | extrapolated at −6.1% | 0.7129 | $6.14M |
| 2030 | $8.34M | extrapolated at −3.2% | 0.6550 | $5.46M |
| 2031 | $8.25M | extrapolated at −1.1% | 0.6019 | $4.97M |
| 2032 | $8.29M | extrapolated at 0.4% | 0.5530 | $4.58M |
| 2033 | $8.41M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.5082 | $4.27M |
| 2034 | $8.59M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.4669 | $4.01M |
| 2035 | $8.82M | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.4291 | $3.78M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $60.25M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $183.07M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $78.55M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $138.8M |
| Shares (diluted) | 71.07M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.95 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.65 |
| × 15.7 (industry P/E) | $10.13 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $6.04 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.