LandBridge stock: fair value
LBThe fair value of LandBridge under our model is $215.17, the price is 67% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $143.45 and expensive above $430.34 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $176.96, at 7.8% it would be $272.67.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $215.17 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $170.22M | extrapolated at 37.7% | 0.9189 | $156.41M |
| 2027 | $217.12M | extrapolated at 27.6% | 0.8443 | $183.32M |
| 2028 | $261.49M | extrapolated at 20.4% | 0.7758 | $202.87M |
| 2029 | $301.9M | extrapolated at 15.5% | 0.7129 | $215.21M |
| 2030 | $338.02M | extrapolated at 12.0% | 0.6550 | $221.41M |
| 2031 | $370.22M | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.6019 | $222.83M |
| 2032 | $399.16M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.5530 | $220.75M |
| 2033 | $425.59M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.5082 | $216.27M |
| 2034 | $450.2M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4669 | $210.22M |
| 2035 | $473.6M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.4291 | $203.2M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.05B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $9.83B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $4.22B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $6.27B |
| Shares (diluted) | 29.15M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $215.17 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $215.17 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.