Kongsberg Gruppen stock: fair value
KOG.OLThe fair value of Kongsberg Gruppen under our model is $38.50, the price is 6% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $27.50 and expensive above $64.16 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $55.36 (cash-flow model) and $21.63 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.5%. At 9.5% the fair value would be $33.64, at 7.5% it would be $45.79.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.5%. Discounted at 8.5% (floor: government bond yield 3.5% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.98 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $55.36 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.52B | extrapolated at 29.2% | 0.9217 | $1.4B |
| 2027 | $1.85B | extrapolated at 21.5% | 0.8496 | $1.57B |
| 2028 | $2.14B | extrapolated at 16.1% | 0.7831 | $1.68B |
| 2029 | $2.41B | extrapolated at 12.3% | 0.7218 | $1.74B |
| 2030 | $2.64B | extrapolated at 9.7% | 0.6654 | $1.76B |
| 2031 | $2.84B | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.6133 | $1.74B |
| 2032 | $3.03B | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.5653 | $1.71B |
| 2033 | $3.2B | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.5211 | $1.67B |
| 2034 | $3.36B | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4803 | $1.61B |
| 2035 | $3.51B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4427 | $1.55B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $16.43B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.5%) / (8.5% − 3.5%) | $72.63B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4427) | $32.15B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $48.58B |
| Shares (diluted) | 877.51M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $55.36 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.69 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $21.63 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $38.50 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = NOK 9.5325)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.