Kingfisher stock: fair value
KFI1.DEThe fair value of Kingfisher under our model is $12.39, the price is 60% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $8.85 and expensive above $20.65 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $19.63 (cash-flow model) and $5.15 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.1%. At 10.1% the fair value would be $10.80, at 8.1% it would be $14.72.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.1% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.05 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.63 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.59B | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.9167 | $1.46B |
| 2028 | $1.71B | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.8403 | $1.44B |
| 2029 | $1.83B | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.7703 | $1.41B |
| 2030 | $1.93B | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.7061 | $1.36B |
| 2031 | $2.03B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.6472 | $1.31B |
| 2032 | $2.13B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.5933 | $1.26B |
| 2033 | $2.22B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.5439 | $1.21B |
| 2034 | $2.32B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.4985 | $1.16B |
| 2035 | $2.42B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4570 | $1.1B |
| 2036 | $2.51B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.4189 | $1.05B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $12.76B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.1% − 3.8%) | $49.51B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4189) | $20.74B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $33.51B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.71B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.63 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.23 |
| × 22 (industry P/E) | $5.15 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $12.39 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Jan 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024, $1 = £0.7544)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.