Kenon Holdings stock: fair value
KENThe fair value of Kenon Holdings under our model is $24.46, the price is 154% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $17.47 and expensive above $40.76 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.44 (cash-flow model) and $47.48 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.3%. At 13.3% the fair value would be $24.40, at 11.3% it would be $24.54.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (20.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.44 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $13.12M | extrapolated at −36.7% | 0.8906 | $11.69M |
| 2027 | $9.9M | extrapolated at −24.5% | 0.7931 | $7.85M |
| 2028 | $8.32M | extrapolated at −16.0% | 0.7063 | $5.87M |
| 2029 | $7.48M | extrapolated at −10.1% | 0.6290 | $4.7M |
| 2030 | $7.04M | extrapolated at −5.9% | 0.5601 | $3.94M |
| 2031 | $6.83M | extrapolated at −3.0% | 0.4988 | $3.41M |
| 2032 | $6.76M | extrapolated at −0.9% | 0.4442 | $3M |
| 2033 | $6.8M | extrapolated at 0.5% | 0.3956 | $2.69M |
| 2034 | $6.9M | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.3523 | $2.43M |
| 2035 | $7.05M | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.3138 | $2.21M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $47.8M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.3% − 3.8%) | $86.51M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3138) | $27.14M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $74.94M |
| Shares (diluted) | 52.11M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.44 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.31 |
| × 20.6 (sector P/E) | $47.48 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $24.46 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.