Karnell Group AB ser. B stock: fair value
KARNEL-B.STThe fair value of Karnell Group AB ser. B under our model is $10.63, the price is 13% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $7.60 and expensive above $17.72 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $14.98 (cash-flow model) and $6.29 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $9.31, at 6.2% it would be $12.63.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (20.9).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 7.2% (floor: government bond yield 2.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $14.98 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $23.35M | extrapolated at 33.5% | 0.9330 | $21.79M |
| 2027 | $28.98M | extrapolated at 24.1% | 0.8705 | $25.23M |
| 2028 | $34.07M | extrapolated at 17.5% | 0.8122 | $27.67M |
| 2029 | $38.48M | extrapolated at 12.9% | 0.7578 | $29.16M |
| 2030 | $42.21M | extrapolated at 9.7% | 0.7070 | $29.84M |
| 2031 | $45.36M | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.6597 | $29.92M |
| 2032 | $48.02M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.6155 | $29.55M |
| 2033 | $50.3M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.5742 | $28.89M |
| 2034 | $52.31M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.5358 | $28.03M |
| 2035 | $54.11M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4999 | $27.05M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $277.12M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (7.2% − 2.2%) | $1.11B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4999) | $552.78M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $829.9M |
| Shares (diluted) | 55.40M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $14.98 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.30 |
| × 20.9 (industry P/E) | $6.29 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $10.63 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 11 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.