St. Joe stock: fair value
JOEThe fair value of St. Joe under our model is $62.59, the price is 14% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $44.71 and expensive above $104.32 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $100.61 (cash-flow model) and $24.57 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $53.72, at 7.8% it would be $75.93.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $100.61 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $167.8M | extrapolated at 33.1% | 0.9189 | $154.19M |
| 2027 | $208.65M | extrapolated at 24.3% | 0.8443 | $176.16M |
| 2028 | $246.59M | extrapolated at 18.2% | 0.7758 | $191.31M |
| 2029 | $280.82M | extrapolated at 13.9% | 0.7129 | $200.19M |
| 2030 | $311.33M | extrapolated at 10.9% | 0.6550 | $203.93M |
| 2031 | $338.59M | extrapolated at 8.8% | 0.6019 | $203.79M |
| 2032 | $363.23M | extrapolated at 7.3% | 0.5530 | $200.88M |
| 2033 | $385.91M | extrapolated at 6.2% | 0.5082 | $196.11M |
| 2034 | $407.2M | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.4669 | $190.14M |
| 2035 | $427.62M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.4291 | $183.47M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.9B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $8.88B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $3.81B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $5.71B |
| Shares (diluted) | 56.76M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $100.61 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.14 |
| × 11.5 (industry P/E) | $24.57 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $62.59 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.