Iveco Group stock: fair value
IVG.MIThe fair value of Iveco Group under our model is $12.05, the price is 32% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $9.27 and expensive above $17.21 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 16.9%. At 17.9% the fair value would be $11.21, at 15.9% it would be $13.02.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit comes largely from discontinued operations, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.5%. Discounted at 16.9% (government bond yield 3.5% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $12.05 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 16.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 16.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $438.09M | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.8555 | $374.79M |
| 2027 | $452.59M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.7319 | $331.25M |
| 2028 | $467.84M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.6261 | $292.93M |
| 2029 | $483.81M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.5357 | $259.16M |
| 2030 | $500.46M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4583 | $229.34M |
| 2031 | $517.78M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3920 | $202.99M |
| 2032 | $535.78M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3354 | $179.7M |
| 2033 | $554.46M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.2869 | $159.09M |
| 2034 | $573.83M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.2455 | $140.86M |
| 2035 | $593.91M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.2100 | $124.72M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.29B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.5%) / (16.9% − 3.5%) | $4.59B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2100) | $964.88M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.26B |
| Shares (diluted) | 270.59M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $12.05 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $12.05 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.