Imperial Brands stock: fair value
ITB.DEThe fair value of Imperial Brands under our model is $88.70, the price is 56% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $63.36 and expensive above $147.83 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $131.54 (cash-flow model) and $45.86 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $77.63, at 7.8% it would be $105.30.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (15.9).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $131.54 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.86B | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.9189 | $4.47B |
| 2027 | $5.19B | extrapolated at 6.7% | 0.8445 | $4.38B |
| 2028 | $5.49B | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.7760 | $4.26B |
| 2029 | $5.78B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.7131 | $4.12B |
| 2030 | $6.06B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.6553 | $3.97B |
| 2031 | $6.33B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.6022 | $3.81B |
| 2032 | $6.6B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.5534 | $3.66B |
| 2033 | $6.88B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.5085 | $3.5B |
| 2034 | $7.16B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.4673 | $3.35B |
| 2035 | $7.44B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4295 | $3.2B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $38.72B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $154.57B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4295) | $66.38B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $105.1B |
| Shares (diluted) | 799.00M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $131.54 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.88 |
| × 15.9 (industry P/E) | $45.86 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $88.70 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 30 Sep 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024, $1 = £0.7544)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 7 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.