Indian Railway Finance stock: fair value
IRFC.NSThe fair value of Indian Railway Finance under our model is $0.83, the price is 9% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.64 and expensive above $1.18 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.74 (cash-flow model) and $0.92 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 21.1%. At 22.1% the fair value would be $0.80, at 20.1% it would be $0.86.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (15.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 6.9%. Discounted at 21.1% (government bond yield 6.9% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 7.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.74 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 21.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 21.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $670.39M | extrapolated at 55.8% | 0.8258 | $553.59M |
| 2028 | $946.24M | extrapolated at 41.2% | 0.6819 | $645.23M |
| 2029 | $1.24B | extrapolated at 30.9% | 0.5631 | $697.36M |
| 2030 | $1.53B | extrapolated at 23.7% | 0.4650 | $712.34M |
| 2031 | $1.82B | extrapolated at 18.7% | 0.3840 | $698.06M |
| 2032 | $2.09B | extrapolated at 15.2% | 0.3171 | $663.78M |
| 2033 | $2.36B | extrapolated at 12.7% | 0.2618 | $617.68M |
| 2034 | $2.62B | extrapolated at 11.0% | 0.2162 | $565.98M |
| 2035 | $2.87B | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.1785 | $512.97M |
| 2036 | $3.13B | extrapolated at 8.9% | 0.1474 | $461.34M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.13B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 6.9%) / (21.1% − 6.9%) | $23.63B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.1474) | $3.48B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $9.61B |
| Shares (diluted) | 13.07B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.74 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.06 |
| × 15.4 (industry P/E) | $0.92 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $0.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Mar 2026
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = ₹94.0836)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.