ICON Public stock: fair value
ICLRThe fair value of ICON Public under our model is $192.13, the price is 4% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $128.09 and expensive above $384.26 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $189.10 (cash-flow model) and $195.16 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.9%. At 11.9% the fair value would be $180.21, at 9.9% it would be $208.01.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (33.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.9% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.41 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $189.10 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $949.07M | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.9020 | $856.03M |
| 2027 | $1.02B | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.8135 | $826.58M |
| 2028 | $1.08B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.7338 | $790.94M |
| 2029 | $1.14B | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.6618 | $752M |
| 2030 | $1.19B | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.5970 | $711.75M |
| 2031 | $1.25B | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.5384 | $671.54M |
| 2032 | $1.3B | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.4856 | $632.18M |
| 2033 | $1.36B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4380 | $594.21M |
| 2034 | $1.41B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.3951 | $557.9M |
| 2035 | $1.47B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.3564 | $523.42M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.92B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.9% − 3.8%) | $21.66B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3564) | $7.72B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $14.64B |
| Shares (diluted) | 77.40M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $189.10 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $5.80 |
| × 33.7 (industry P/E) | $195.16 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $192.13 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Nov 2022)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.