Hyster-Yale Materials Handling stock: fair value
HYThe fair value of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling under our model is $103.60, the price is 73% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $74.00 and expensive above $172.67 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.5%. At 11.5% the fair value would be $88.60, at 9.5% it would be $124.04.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.5% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.49 times a risk premium of 4.4%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $103.60 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $56.13M | extrapolated at 49.5% | 0.9053 | $50.81M |
| 2027 | $76.23M | extrapolated at 35.8% | 0.8197 | $62.48M |
| 2028 | $96.22M | extrapolated at 26.2% | 0.7421 | $71.4M |
| 2029 | $114.99M | extrapolated at 19.5% | 0.6718 | $77.26M |
| 2030 | $132.02M | extrapolated at 14.8% | 0.6082 | $80.3M |
| 2031 | $147.21M | extrapolated at 11.5% | 0.5507 | $81.07M |
| 2032 | $160.77M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.4986 | $80.15M |
| 2033 | $172.98M | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.4514 | $78.08M |
| 2034 | $184.16M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.4086 | $75.26M |
| 2035 | $194.61M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.3700 | $72M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $728.8M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.5% − 3.8%) | $3.05B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3700) | $1.13B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.86B |
| Shares (diluted) | 17.93M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $103.60 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $103.60 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 8 Aug 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.