Hovnanian Enterprises stock: fair value
HOVThe fair value of Hovnanian Enterprises under our model is $252.16, the price is 62% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $168.11 and expensive above $504.32 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.4%. At 13.4% the fair value would be $226.59, at 11.4% it would be $284.45.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but weak growth.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.4% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.92 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $252.16 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $160.7M | extrapolated at −4.7% | 0.8898 | $142.98M |
| 2027 | $157.21M | extrapolated at −2.2% | 0.7917 | $124.46M |
| 2028 | $156.64M | extrapolated at −0.4% | 0.7044 | $110.33M |
| 2029 | $158.03M | extrapolated at 0.9% | 0.6267 | $99.04M |
| 2030 | $160.83M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.5576 | $89.68M |
| 2031 | $164.68M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.4961 | $81.7M |
| 2032 | $169.32M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4414 | $74.75M |
| 2033 | $174.62M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.3928 | $68.59M |
| 2034 | $180.44M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.3495 | $63.06M |
| 2035 | $186.73M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3109 | $58.06M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $912.65M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.4% − 3.8%) | $2.26B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3109) | $704.19M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.62B |
| Shares (diluted) | 6.41M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $252.16 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $252.16 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Oct 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 29 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.