Hillman Solutions stock
HLMNNASDAQHillman Solutions Corp., IndustrialsISIN US4316361090
49Score 49 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
64 / 100
Price history
−9.0% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 6 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 2.0% below it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 63).
The price is 26% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 6 years: 51% (August 2021 to October 2023).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$7.41
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$8.06
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)63
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$6.94
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$10.74
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Hillman Solutions Corp. belongs to the Manufacturing (Tools & Accessories) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.53B, is number 14 of 15 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.55B (up 5.4% year on year) and earnings of $40.31M (up 133.6%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $1.67B (up 7.6%) and adjusted earnings per share of $0.60 (up 1.4%).
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- MEQIRI Score 49 out of 100 (Weak): rank 822 of 1023 in Industrials, median 61.
- The P/E is 63.8 (Manufacturing (Tools & Accessories) median 24, own median of recent years 77.2).
- Our model puts fair value at $7.15, with the price 12% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 425% of earnings over the last 12 months.
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 120% since 2020.Capital allocation 43
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 2 times.Stability 57
The score is held back by valuation and profitability.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $5.11 and expensive above $11.92 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $11.33 (cash-flow model) and $2.98 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.5%. At 10.5% the fair value would be $6.25, at 8.5% it would be $8.44.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 26 Sep 2026, revenue rose 6.4% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2017, at about 8% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 40%, operating 8%, net 3%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 16 Feb 2027in 96 days
- Last reported
- 2 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.22 (expected $0.21)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 5.0% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $0.60+2.0%
- Revenue
- $1.67B−0.9%
- Earnings per share
- $0.65−5.0%
- Revenue
- $1.8B−0.1%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: +11.0%2026 net sales guidance raised to $1.67 to $1.72 billion (midpoint up $15 million) and adjusted EBITDA to about $285 million (up $5 million), mainly from the Kanebridge acquisition.
“We now expect our full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $285 million, which is a $5 million increase from our previous midpoint of $280 million. Driving the increase is the expected EBITDA contribution from Kanebridge, assuming closing on our anticipated timeline.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 4 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
One insider bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $248,500 in total. 2 insiders sold, $248,643 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Hillman Solutions
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
1023 rated companies in Industrials
- This company
- 49
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Manufacturing (Tools & Accessories)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- ToroTTC $10.16B74
- Makita6586.T $9.08B72
- TimkenTKR $7.59B60
- SFS GroupSFSN.SW $6.79B75
- Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial002444.SZ $5.03B67
- HusqvarnaHUSQ-B.ST $1.91B48
- KennametalKMT $1.89B65
- Einhell GermanyEIN.DE $831.56M71
ETFs that hold Hillman Solutions
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.06% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.06% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.06% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
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| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.04% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| Amundi MSCI Robotics & AI UCITS ETF AccGOAI | 0.04% | 0.40% | €1.14B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.02% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.01% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.00% | 0.35% | €434.1M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 27 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 20 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.