HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA stock: fair value
HLE.DEThe fair value of HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA under our model is $81.15, the price is 11% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $57.97 and expensive above $135.26 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $145.82 (cash-flow model) and $16.49 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $68.35, at 6.1% it would be $100.41.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (14.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.1% (floor: government bond yield 2.1% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.92 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $145.82 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $502.34M | extrapolated at 28.0% | 0.9334 | $468.86M |
| 2027 | $604.04M | extrapolated at 20.2% | 0.8712 | $526.21M |
| 2028 | $693.52M | extrapolated at 14.8% | 0.8131 | $563.9M |
| 2029 | $769.88M | extrapolated at 11.0% | 0.7589 | $584.28M |
| 2030 | $834.17M | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.7083 | $590.87M |
| 2031 | $888.28M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.6611 | $587.27M |
| 2032 | $934.32M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.6171 | $576.55M |
| 2033 | $974.21M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.5760 | $561.1M |
| 2034 | $1.01B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.5376 | $542.72M |
| 2035 | $1.04B | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.5017 | $522.68M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $5.52B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.1% − 2.1%) | $21.28B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5017) | $10.68B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $16.2B |
| Shares (diluted) | 111.11M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $145.82 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.12 |
| × 14.7 (industry P/E) | $16.49 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $81.15 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.