AMTD Digital stock: fair value
HKDThe fair value of AMTD Digital under our model is $2.85, the price is 51% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.04 and expensive above $4.75 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.12 (cash-flow model) and $5.59 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.2%. At 12.2% the fair value would be $2.84, at 10.2% it would be $2.86.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 11.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.66 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.12 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8.89M | extrapolated at −38.1% | 0.8991 | $7.99M |
| 2027 | $6.62M | extrapolated at −25.5% | 0.8084 | $5.35M |
| 2028 | $5.52M | extrapolated at −16.7% | 0.7268 | $4.01M |
| 2029 | $4.94M | extrapolated at −10.5% | 0.6535 | $3.23M |
| 2030 | $4.63M | extrapolated at −6.2% | 0.5875 | $2.72M |
| 2031 | $4.48M | extrapolated at −3.2% | 0.5282 | $2.37M |
| 2032 | $4.43M | extrapolated at −1.1% | 0.4749 | $2.1M |
| 2033 | $4.45M | extrapolated at 0.4% | 0.4270 | $1.9M |
| 2034 | $4.51M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.3839 | $1.73M |
| 2035 | $4.61M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.3452 | $1.59M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $32.99M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (11.2% − 3.8%) | $64.69M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3452) | $22.33M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $55.32M |
| Shares (diluted) | 314.28M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.18 |
| Per share as traded (converted ÷ 1.52) | $0.12 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.18 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $5.59 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.85 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 31 Oct 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.