HCI Group stock
HCINYSEHCI Group, Inc., Financial ServicesISIN US40416E1038
81Score 81 out of 100, Strong
Price and trend
72 / 100
Price history
+0.7% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 18 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Above the 200-day line: the price is 11% above it.
Since August 2026 the 50-day line has been above the 200-day line; the trend has turned up.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 33).
The price is 7.7% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 18 years: 79% (October 2021 to October 2022).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$190.45
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$171.95
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)33
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$148.98
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$206.68
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- HCI Group, Inc. belongs to the Insurance (Property & Casualty) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $2.37B, is number 38 of 58 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $900.95M (up 20.2% year on year) and earnings of $299.01M (up 171.9%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $981.83M (up 9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $20.93 (down 7.7%).
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- MEQIRI Score 81 out of 100 (Strong): rank 66 of 975 in Financial Services, median 68.
- The P/E is 7.5 (Insurance (Property & Casualty) median 12.3, own median of recent years 13.4).
- Our model puts fair value at $344.88, with the price 45% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 51.3% a year since 2020.Growth 99
- High return on equityReturn on equity 30.3% over the last 12 months.Profitability 90
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 23.7% a year since 2020, Insurance (Property & Casualty) median 8.5%.Growth 99
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 55% since 2020.Capital allocation 52
- Margin may fall backOperating margin 47.7%, average of the prior years 13.4%, which ranged from −13.9% to 23.1%. After peaks like this, the margin was more than a quarter lower two years later in 44 of 100 cases, against 24 of 100 for other companies with high margins.
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 10.9% a year through 2027 (estimates from 3 analysts).
Its standout strengths are valuation and growth.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 80 to 81.
The fundamentals are strong overall.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- solid fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $265.29 and expensive above $492.68 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $375.60 (excess return model) and $314.15 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $313.58, at 7.8% it would be $391.83.
Valuation metrics
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (12.3).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 20.1% on the twelve months before. Up to 2020 the bars include businesses that were later spun off or sold. On a comparable basis, as restated in the SEC annual reports, revenue grew 23.7% a year.
Margins
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: operating 48%, net 33%. Banks and insurers have no gross margin, and their net margin is not comparable with other industries. The score leaves both out.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterFor banks and insurers, deposits and liabilities are the business. Debt to equity and the current ratio say little here, and the score does not rate them.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 24 Feb 2027in 103 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $6.45 (expected $4.96)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $20.93+0.5%
- Revenue
- $981.83M0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $19.440.0%
- Revenue
- $1.05B0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −1.3%The combined ratio of 57% is not expected to change significantly.
“For the full year 2025, the combined ratio was about 57%, and it was 57% again this quarter, illustrating the quality of our underwriting and our operating efficiencies.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 May 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at HCI Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
975 rated companies in Financial Services
- This company
- 81
- Sector median
- 68
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Insurance (Property & Casualty)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- LemonadeLMND $3.35B23
- Slide Insurance HoldingsSLDE $3.04B83
- Skyward Specialty Insurance GroupSKWD $2.78B74
- Porch GroupPRCH $2.44B36
- Horace Mann EducatorsHMN $2.14B67
- KemperKMPR $2.02B35
- Safety Insurance GroupSAFT $1.53B61
- Línea Directa AseguradoraLDA.MC $1.53B76
ETFs that hold HCI Group
Held by 12 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.18% | 0.39% | €1.49B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.17% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.11% | 0.30% | €2.31B |
Show 5 more
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.07% | 0.30% | €4.28B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.07% | 0.30% | €2.22B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.04% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.02% | 0.35% | €8.27B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.01% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Nov 2023)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.